2010 Predictions

Back here I made some predictions for 2010. Let's see how bad they turned out to be...

Inflation will reach double digits

Um... nope. About 5.5% RPI, 3.5% CPI. High, but not double-digit. (0/1)

Conservative victory in the General Election, by >30 seats

Nope. 20 short, but the coalition is 37 over the threshold. (0/2)

Britain will lose her AAA credit rating...
... but will regain it by the end of the year after massive cuts in public expenditure

Somewhat. We didn't formally lose the credit rating, but were marked as a negative outlook and the bond markets were pricing us as de-facto AA. We did need, and get, some cuts. (0.5/4)

The FTSE100 will drop below 4000 before rebounding

Nope. 52-week range is 4790-6021.5. (0.5/5)

There won't be a new Labour leader in 2010, Brown will cling on and smear his rivals as the party implodes

Nope. We now have the Work Experience Kid and Brown vanished like Scotch Mist. (0.5/6)

Sterling will drop below parity with the Euro, and below 120 Yen, but will stay around $1.50

52-week range against the Euro is 1.0966 - 1.2339, so, no, didn't expect the collapse in the Eurozone.
52-week range against the Yen is 125.5190 - 150.7188... damn, so close, especially as it's only 126 now.
52-week range against the Dollar is 1.4227 - 1.6459 (mean = 1.53), so I'm happy with that one. (1/7)

Global Cooling will continue, more neutral/negative results will come out, as will a few more scandals, Copenhagen will be swept under the carpet and most politicians will be claiming by the end of the year that they were always skeptical

Coldest December in decades, unseasonably cold in Cancun for COP16 (and generally only a ministerial presence rather than leaders), a paper claiming no link between CO₂ and temperatures. I'm going to say that's a win. (2/8)

Sebastian Vettel to win the F1 world championship - he'll be the fastest German on the grid, certainly

Boom! Right on the money: Vettel won the championship, beating six other Germans in the process. (3/9)

VAT may or may not increase, but basic rate income tax will hit 25% as a temporary measure

Nope. The coalition wouldn't stand it. (3/10)


So, 30% right there. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't expected more, but I'll take it.
 
- Mystic KoW

Election: Absolutely Disgusted

So, after a clear, but not decisive Tory victory and what seems like the minimum amount of negotiation Nick Clegg could get away with (and simultaneously courting Labour behind the scenes), Gordon Brown has been given the shove and we're now hearing about an oh-so-stable coalition of everyone-but-the-Tories to run the country.

That's "putting the national interest first", apparently. Welcome to the New Politics, same as the Old Politics.

So what can Labour, the Lib Dems, the Green Party, the SDLP, Alliance, Plaid Cymru and the SNP have in common? Other than a desire to shaft the English electorate to further their own individual agendas? With all 7 parties, and the DUP going with the Tories as usual, that's about a 10-seat majority - and 21 different internal squabbles as the Welsh fight the Scottish for more handouts, the Irish fight each other (if they can work together, why are there so many different parties?), the Greens demand the abolition of electricity against the wishes of everyone else in Parliament and the economy collapses under the weight of the spending commitments.

The announcements were made after the stock markets closed last night. Forex, which is 24/7, saw Sterling drop by over $0.01 against the dollar immediately. The FTSE100 opened this morning nearly 100 points (~2%) down, and is still down well over 1%. The markets clearly aren't enthused by this.

Reading the comments from Iain Dale's readers, the electorate aren't going to be happy with an alliance of the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th parties scraping together to get enough seats to overpower the country's first choice to further their own agendas. That's not "democracy" by any stretch of the imagination, and I expect the second General Election this year will be a decisive rejection of all those putting narrow party interests in front of the country's interests that they claim to serve.

- KoW

Inflation

Holy shit, it's been a month since I last posted. How did that happen?

So, today's news is that inflation has jumped up again: 3.4% CPI (up from 3% last month), 4.4% RPI (up from 3.7%). My prediction at New Year's, of double-digit inflation, seems possible.

In this evening's Evening Standard, James Hughes of Black Swan Capital wealth management is quoted as saying

This sharp increase in UK inflation is possibly just the start of an inevitable and unstoppable slide towards double-digit inflation and interest rates within the next few years

Good name for a company, Black Swan. Presumably taken from Taleb's book. Still, we'll have to wait and see - I only win my pint if RPI is over 10% by mid November.

- KoW

Predictions for 2010

Inspired by Iain Dale's predictions, here are mine:

1. Inflation will reach double digits
2. Conservative victory in the General Election, by >30 seats
3. Britain will lose her AAA credit rating...
4. ... but will regain it by the end of the year after massive cuts in public expenditure
5. The FTSE100 will drop below 4000 before rebounding
6. There won't be a new Labour leader in 2010, Brown will cling on and smear his rivals as the party implodes
7. Sterling will drop below parity with the Euro, and below 120 Yen, but will stay around $1.50
8. Global Cooling will continue, more neutral/negative results will come out, as will a few more scandals, Copenhagen will be swept under the carpet and most politicians will be claiming by the end of the year that they were always skeptical
9. Sebastian Vettel to win the F1 world championship - he'll be the fastest German on the grid, certainly
10. VAT may or may not increase, but basic rate income tax will hit 25% as a temporary measure

- Mystic KoW