Monday, January 03, 2011

Predictions for 2011

OK, well, 30% wasn't too bad, so I think I should push my luck...

  1. Inflation will remain high, forcing an increase in the BoE base rate by the summer
  2. Property prices will continue their recent slide, exacerbated by the interest rate rise, and will finish down about 10% on the year
  3. F1 won't be won by a German this year - I'm going to say McLaren for the double. Probably Hamilton, but it depends how well the new tyres suit Button.
  4. Audi will win 24 Hours of Le Mans again, despite a close fight with Peugeot, and Drayson Racing will be classified finishers.
  5. Sterling will rise slightly against the Dollar - $1.60 - and fall slightly against the Yen - 115. I'm going to predict a rise against the Euro, though not sure how much maybe 1.20-1.30?
  6. Oil prices will fluctuate, but petrol prices will ignore this and rise to £1.50/litre for no adequately explained reason.
  7. Gold will trade above $1600/oz, but most of the volatility will be in silver and/or platinum.
  8. GDP growth will remain anaemic, maybe 1-2% over the entire year. The FTSE will remain above 5000 as a result.
  9. There will not be a General Election in 2011. The coalition may not hold for the entire year, but I think it will last long enough.
  10. There will not be a significant Islamist terrorist attack in the UK, the US, or on a transatlantic flight. Let's define "significant" as "kills one or more people", none of this "has the Houses of Parliament on a list of targets" nonsense.

- Mystic KoW

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2010 Predictions

Back here I made some predictions for 2010. Let's see how bad they turned out to be...

Inflation will reach double digits
Um... nope. About 5.5% RPI, 3.5% CPI. High, but not double-digit. (0/1)

Conservative victory in the General Election, by >30 seats
Nope. 20 short, but the coalition is 37 over the threshold. (0/2)

Britain will lose her AAA credit rating...
... but will regain it by the end of the year after massive cuts in public expenditure
Somewhat. We didn't formally lose the credit rating, but were marked as a negative outlook and the bond markets were pricing us as de-facto AA. We did need, and get, some cuts. (0.5/4)

The FTSE100 will drop below 4000 before rebounding
Nope. 52-week range is 4790-6021.5. (0.5/5)

There won't be a new Labour leader in 2010, Brown will cling on and smear his rivals as the party implodes
Nope. We now have the Work Experience Kid and Brown vanished like Scotch Mist. (0.5/6)

Sterling will drop below parity with the Euro, and below 120 Yen, but will stay around $1.50
52-week range against the Euro is 1.0966 - 1.2339, so, no, didn't expect the collapse in the Eurozone.
52-week range against the Yen is 125.5190 - 150.7188... damn, so close, especially as it's only 126 now.
52-week range against the Dollar is 1.4227 - 1.6459 (mean = 1.53), so I'm happy with that one. (1/7)

Global Cooling will continue, more neutral/negative results will come out, as will a few more scandals, Copenhagen will be swept under the carpet and most politicians will be claiming by the end of the year that they were always skeptical
Coldest December in decades, unseasonably cold in Cancun for COP16 (and generally only a ministerial presence rather than leaders), a paper claiming no link between CO2 and temperatures. I'm going to say that's a win. (2/8)

Sebastian Vettel to win the F1 world championship - he'll be the fastest German on the grid, certainly
Boom! Right on the money: Vettel won the championship, beating six other Germans in the process. (3/9)

VAT may or may not increase, but basic rate income tax will hit 25% as a temporary measure
Nope. The coalition wouldn't stand it. (3/10)

So, 30% right there. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't expected more, but I'll take it.
- Mystic KoW

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