Wednesday, December 28, 2011

2011 predictions

Well, it's been a year since I made some predictions - a year in which I seem to have posted almost nothing. Oops. Let's see how the predictions went, though...

Inflation will remain high, forcing an increase in the BoE base rate by the summer
RPI has been above 5% all year, but the BoE is deliberately allowing inflation in spite of its obligations. Half a point? (0.5/10)

Property prices will continue their recent slide, exacerbated by the interest rate rise, and will finish down about 10% on the year
Nope. Up 1.6% YoY as of November, so a slight fall in real terms but no rate rise meant no crash. (0.5/10)

F1 won't be won by a German this year - I'm going to say McLaren for the double. Probably Hamilton, but it depends how well the new tyres suit Button.
Hahaha! Vettel won damn near every race, in one of the most lop-sided competitions for many years. It was still a damn entertaining season, though, once you ignore the car at the front. (0.5/10)

Audi will win 24 Hours of Le Mans again, despite a close fight with Peugeot, and Drayson Racing will be classified finishers.
Drayson Racing didn't enter for Le Mans, but Audi most definitely won - with Peugeot picking up second through fourth after an incredibly close race which saw two of the Audis crash out. (1.5/10)

Sterling will rise slightly against the Dollar - $1.60 - and fall slightly against the Yen - 115. I'm going to predict a rise against the Euro, though not sure how much maybe 1.20-1.30?
Today, £1 is worth $1.5661 (low in September of $1.53, high in May of $1.66), €1.1983 (low €1.2045, high €1.1065) and ¥121.7295 (low ¥116.985, high ¥139.62). So, we have hit €1.20 and $1.60 during the year, but it's been very volatile - half a point? (2/10)

Oil prices will fluctuate, but petrol prices will ignore this and rise to £1.50/litre for no adequately explained reason.
We've reached £1.32/litre for Unleaded, but I'm going to call this one a failure. (2/10)

Gold will trade above $1600/oz, but most of the volatility will be in silver and/or platinum.
Gold is only just below $1600/oz again - and it hit $1900/oz. Silver has been a little more volatile, but it's been an exceptionally volatile year for all metals. (3/10)

GDP growth will remain anaemic, maybe 1-2% over the entire year. The FTSE will remain above 5000 as a result.
Half a percent in Q1/Q3, flat in Q2 - even without the Q4 figures, I'd say that's a definite hit. Particularly since this time last year we were going to get >3% growth in 2011. The FTSE touched 5000 a couple of times, but has basically stayed above that psychological point for the entire year. (4/10)

There will not be a General Election in 2011. The coalition may not hold for the entire year, but I think it will last long enough.
It's too late now to call a GE before 2012, so even if the coalition falls this week, this one was bang-on. (5/10)

There will not be a significant Islamist terrorist attack in the UK, the US, or on a transatlantic flight. Let's define "significant" as "kills one or more people", none of this "has the Houses of Parliament on a list of targets" nonsense.
None. A couple of lone wolf nutters in Tucson, AZ and Norway, the Irish are back, and plenty of trouble from al-Qaeda et al in the Middle East, but nothing to worry about here. How's that Terror Alert Level doing? (6/10)

I might have been generous for a couple of those, but I'm fairly impressed by that strike rate. Shall have to make the 2012 predictions more specific and objectively measurable...

- Mystic KoW

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